Since the beginning of the current surge in violence between Israel and Hezbollah, which has caught Lebanon in the middle, I’ve been thinking that this is no incident, and that it has all been carefully planned.
It is well known that Iran and Syria are behind Hezbollah. Iran has been recently the center of attention for its nuclear program. In late June 2006, the foreign policy chief of the European Union (EU) Javier Solana and Ali Larijani, Iran’s negotiator on the nuclear talks, were to have a meeting to discuss a new proposal to reach an agreement. However, Iran cancelled this meeting and postponed it without further explanations.
A few days later, Hezbollah killed eight Israeli soldiers and kidnapped another two. Israel then responded with counterattacks, to which Hezbollah also replied, and the whole thing escalated to a serious situation.
My theory was that Iran wanted to provoke Israel with Iran’s remote-controlled Hezbollah to carry out the kidnappings and killings, conscious of what Israel’s reaction would be. Once the conflict would be on its way (as it is now in late July), Iran would be able to express their anger for the Israeli aggression on Arab countries, and use it as an excuse to further postpone nuclear talks with the EU, the UN, the US, Russia or whoever.
Iran needs more time to develop its nuclear program without the interference of the international community, and a war between Israel and Arab countries comes in very handy for Iran to distract attention and justify that while Israel continues its aggression, Iran will not discuss its nuclear program.
As a matter of fact, on Friday July 21, 2006, I heard a news report stating Iran’s decision to halt nuclear talks for now because of Israel’s activities in Lebanon. Furthermore, others are already voicing similar opinions.
In the mean time, innocent Lebanese and Israeli civilians are being killed by Israel and Hezbollah, just so Iran can have its fabricated excuse to halt talks with the EU and the rest of the world.